[Update 2: So it's true, Facebook has just formally announced that DST will invest $200M on a $10B valuation and make available up to $100M to buy employee options. No mention of any side deals around Vkontakte]
I will put aside the valuations or the benefits of insiders cashing out part of their options and focus instead on what I think are some social network geo-politics at play.
DST has an impressive portfolio of Russian internet properties including Mail.ru and, more importantly VKontakte, the leading social network in Russia. Valleywag had c
alled VKontakte a Facebook clone and yet if you look at a map of the global social network world, a whole swath of it is covered in the light blue of Vkontakte.ru.A post last March on Window on the Media had argued that russian users were switching to Facebook at a greater rate and that if it continued, Facebook would surpass VKontakte by November, 2009.
So this is where my Potsdam theory comes in [Using the WWII conference at Potsdam - where the allies defined "Spheres of Influence" and the post-war world - as an analogy]. I have to wonder whether, in an effort to both defend, and perhaps even exit their investment in Vkontakte.ru, DST has not done some sort of deal through which the investment in Facebook also comes with some provisions around defending Vkontakte's control in Russia.This could come in the form of a commercial agreement or a JV between Facebook and DST properties in Russia. With the Russian President formally calling the Internet space a "strategic" area and warning against foreign investments, one might wonder whether Facebook just saved itself a battle, gained market share and won itself some cash for both itself and its employees.
Looking forward to further details of the DST-Facebook deal. Keep an eye out for any announcements of a Facebook-VKontakte deal in parallel...
[Update: It seems TechCrunch posted a similar theory last night also specifying DST's requirement for a Board seat along with the investment]
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