We have just surpassed 3 BILLION mobile subscribers, some countries have over 125% penetration (multiple phones per person) so yes there is a saturation issue. Add to that the replacement rate being affected by the economy (you don't go buy a new phone when you don't have a job) and the vocal statement by operators to reduce (ie make harder for you) the subsidized phones (marketing or customer retention expense for them, cheap way to get the latest gadget for you)..
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